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26/01/12 -- EU grains finished mostly higher again with
Mar 12 London wheat GBP1.25/tonne higher at GBP164.50/tonne and Mar 12 Paris
wheat rising EUR1.25/tonne to EUR209.25/tonne. New crop London wheat was unchanged.
There wasn't a lot of fresh news, but the bulls have
the bit firmly between their teeth at the moment. Bears are running for cover
with the market now almost GBP25.00/tonne higher than it was six weeks ago.
Nobody saw this sudden sharp correction coming.
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The HGCA made some minor tweaks to the final 2011 production
estimates, reducing UK wheat production very slightly to 15.26 MMT, still 3%
higher than in 2010 despite the spring and early summer drought.
Human and industrial usage was also revised only fractionally
lower to 6.9 MMT, despite Ensus showing few signs of springing back into life.
Brussels issued soft wheat export licences for 218 TMT
this past week, the best total of 2012 so far but a long way from where you
would expect things to be at this time of year.
The marketing year-to-date total now stands at 7.9 MMT,
versus 12.3 MMT at the same time in 2010/11. So despite a slightly larger crop
in 2011/12 EU-27 soft wheat exports are actually 36% lower than they were a
year ago.